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Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Jun. 17th



Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning's economic data gave us favorable news and the stock markets are showing early losses. The Dow is currently down 58 points while the Nasdaq has lost 11 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was this morning's big news. It revealed a 0.2% decline in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the more important core data. The overall reading was weaker than expected but the core reading matched forecasts. This means inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were not stronger than expected. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was posted late this morning, showing a 0.4% increase. This was slightly below forecasts, indicating that economic activity may not expand quite as much as many had thought over the next several months. This is also good news for bonds and rate because rapid economic growth usually raises inflation concerns that make bonds less attractive to investors and leads to higher mortgage rates. However, this data is considered to be only moderately important to the markets and its impact on today's rate has been minimal.

Also posted this morning were weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They announced that 472,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This exceeded forecasts and hints that the labor market is still far from a recovery. Unfortunately for mortgage rates, this data is not considered to be highly important because it tracks only a single week's worth of claims.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but it is a fairly important day for stocks. Tomorrow is ?quadruple witching? which has to do with stock option expirations that must be executed by tomorrow. It really has no direct relation to the bond market, but the higher than normal volatility in stocks on these days can influence the broader markets. Sometimes that may lead to funds being moved into or out of bonds, however, it usually does not affect mortgage rates unless the swings in the major indexes are significant.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010
Posted by Scott Batt on June 17th, 2010 9:24 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Jun. 16th



Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite the release of generally unfavorable economic data. The stock markets are helping somewhat with the Dow down 40 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, but we should still see a small increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday. Yesterday's stock rally helped push bond prices lower during afternoon trading yesterday.

This morning brought us the release of three relevant economic reports. The results were mixed amongst them, but the more important ones showed stronger than expected results. The first was the least important and gave us favorable news. This was May's Housing starts that revealed a 10% decline in starts of new homes last month. That was a much larger drop than expected and the pushed starts to their lowest level in five months, indicating that the housing sector may be weakening once the tax credits expire. This is basically godo news for the bond market because a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery more difficult.

The second was May's Producer Price Index (PPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Today's release showed a 0.3% decline in the overall index and a 0.2% increase in the more important core reading. These readings hint that inflationary pressures were a little stronger than many had thought, which is negative for bonds and mortgage rates. This is because inflation at the producer level of the economy will likely carry into the consumer level, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. The result is binds prices falling and mortgage rates rising.

The third report was May's Industrial Production. It showed a 1.2% rise in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities when forecasts were calling for a 0.8% increase. This means that manufacturing activity was stronger than thought and is another negative for bonds.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow, but one of them is the week's most important and arguably the single most important report we see each month. That is May's Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is very similar to today's PPI, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.1% drop in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data. A larger than expected increase in the core reading would most likely lead to a noticeable upward change to mortgage rates tomorrow.

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted late tomorrow morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, will post this data. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. Good news for mortgage rates would a decline in this index, but the CPI is much more important to the markets than this index. Therefore, if the CPI reveals any surprises, this data will likely have little impact on Thursday's mortgage rates. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010
Posted by Scott Batt on June 16th, 2010 2:14 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Sep. 2nd



Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early volatility in stocks and favorable economic data. The stock markets have fluctuated between positive and negative ground this morning, but the Dow and Nasdaq are both currently up a couple of points. The bond market is up 4/32, which with yesterday's late strength should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.

The 2nd Quarter Productivity revision was posted early this morning, showing an annual rate of 6.6%. This was a little higher than expected, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because strong levels of worker output allows the economy to grow without inflation concerns.

The second relevant report was July's Factory Orders data. It showed a smaller than expected increase in new orders. The 1.3% increase instead of the forecasted 1.5% indicates that manufacturing activity was not as strong as expected. This is also good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets. Therefore, its impact on this morning's trading has been minimal.

Later today, we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member's views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed's next move may be. But this is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. It generally causes a little movement in bond prices but not enough to significantly affect mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow does not have any important economic news scheduled for release. The Labor Department will give us last week's unemployment figures, but these are not considered to be of much concern to mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see little change from the previous week's number of new claims for unemployment benefits.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on September 3rd, 2009 11:11 AMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Sunday Aug. 30th



There are four relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week in addition to the minutes from the most recent Fed monetary policy meeting. There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to directly affect bond trading and mortgage rates.

The first piece of data comes Tuesday morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and is expected to show an increase from last month's reading of 48.9. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than those who felt it worsened. A larger than expected increase in the index will probably cause a rally in the stock markets and lead to mortgage rates rising Tuesday, while a reading below 50 should lead to lower rates. Analysts are expecting a reading of 50.2, which would be the first reading above 50.0 since January 2008 and indicate that the manufacturing sector is growing.

The second report of the week is the revision to the 2nd Quarter Productivity numbers, which measures employee productivity in the workplace. Strong levels of productivity allow the economy to expand without inflation concerns. It is expected to show a downward change from the previous estimate of a 6.4% annual pace. Forecasts are currently calling for a reading of 6.1%. A larger than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also Wednesday morning comes July's Factory Orders data. This report measures manufacturing sector strength and is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders, but includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data is expected to show a 1.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise should lead to lower mortgage rates Wednesday, as long as the productivity number doesn't hurt bond prices.





The third and final event for Wednesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member's views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed's next move may be. But this is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. It generally causes a little movement in bond prices but not enough to significantly affect mortgage pricing.

The big news of the week comes Friday morning. The Labor Department will post the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and average hourly earnings for August early Friday. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in payrolls and earnings to remain unchanged. Analysts are expecting to see that the unemployment rate moved from 9.4% to 9.5% and that 225,000 jobs were lost during the month. Weaker then expected readings would be very good news for bonds and lead to lower mortgage rates Friday. However, if we get stronger than expected numbers, mortgage rates will probably spike higher Friday.

Overall, I expect to see the most movement in rates Friday, but Tuesday and Wednesday should also be fairly active. Tomorrow or Thursday will likely be the calmest day due to the lack of any monthly or quarterly data being posted. Also worth mentioning though is the fact that next Monday is Labor Day so all markets will be closed. The bond market will not close early this Friday, but many traders may head home for the long weekend after Friday's data is posted. This means that trading will likely be thin Friday afternoon even though the markets will still be open. This could lead to additional volatility in rates as traders prepare for the long weekend, so please be careful this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on August 31st, 2009 12:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Aug. 28th



Friday's bond market opened in negative territory following early gains in stocks, but the markets have since swapped positions with stocks in negative ground and the bond market up slightly. The Dow is currently down 40 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged from yesterday's close. The bond market is now up 2/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

Today's economic news was fairly uneventful. July's Personal Income and Outlays report showed no change in income and a 0.2% increase in spending. The income reading was slightly lower than forecasts and can be considered favorable for bonds, but the spending portion of the report matched expectations.

The second report of the day was the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment revision for August. It showed a reading of 65.7 indicating that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations this month than previous thought. That is bad news for bonds, but has not significantly impacted this morning's mortgage rates.

Next week brings us the release of several very important reports and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday, so expect the bond market to react to movements in stocks. Look for more details on next week's data and events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on August 28th, 2009 12:43 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Aug. 27th



Thursday's bond market has opened flat again as investors seem to be unmoved by recent economic data. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 30 points and the Nasdaq down 19 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but I am not expecting to see much of a change in this morning's mortgage rates.

Today's release of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision revealed no change to the previous estimate of down 1.0%. Analysts were expecting to see a downward revision to a decline of 1.4%, meaning that the economy was not as weak as some had thought. While this is considered negative news for bonds since it was thought the economy had slowed at a quicker pace than it actually did, the data has not influenced mortgage rates this morning. It could be that this is relatively old news at this point. There is a final revision being released next month, but it often has little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

The Labor Department said that 570,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was close to forecasts and has also had little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates this morning.

Yesterday's 5-year Treasury Note auction went okay. It was met with an average demand from investors and the other measurements of success were indicated the same. It was not an overly strong auction, but it also didn't qualify as a poor sale either. Today's 7-year Note sale is also of interest to mortgage shoppers. The results of it will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with a good demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates later today.

Tomorrow brings us the release of two relevant economic reports. The first is July's Personal Income and Outlays report that measures consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is expected to show an increase of 0.1% in income and a 0.2% increase in spending. Weaker than expected numbers would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

August's revision to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is also due tomorrow morning. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 64.8. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their personal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on August 27th, 2009 12:45 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Aug. 26th



Wednesday's bond market has opened flat despite stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 30 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday's closing level, but we will still likely see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department gave us July's Durable Goods Orders report, showing a 4.9% increase in orders for big-ticket products. This was larger than the 3.2% that was expected and an upward revision to June's orders indicates that the manufacturing sector may be stronger than many had expected. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because strength in manufacturing helps support the theory that the broader economy will recover sooner than later.

Also released this morning was July's New Home Sales data that greatly exceeded forecasts. The 9.6% increase in sales of newly constructed homes was well above forecasts and brought them to their best level since September of last year. This also can be considered negative news for bonds because a strengthening housing sector would give a strong boost to the overall economy. However, this data doesn't usually have a significant influence on mortgage rates.

We also have today's 5-year Treasury Note auction to watch for. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with a good demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Tomorrow's only monthly or quarterly data is the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Last month's preliminary reading revealed that the economy declined at an annual rate of 1.0%. A larger than expected downward revision should help lower mortgage rates Thursday, especially if the inflation portion of the release does not get revised higher. Current forecasts are calling for a revised reading of down 1.4%. There will be a final revision issued next month, but it probably will have little impact on mortgage rates.

The Labor Department will give us weekly unemployment claims tomorrow morning and the 7-year Note auction is tomorrow also. I don't expect the unemployment figures to have much of an impact on the bond market and mortgage rates, but the Treasury sale could influence rates during afternoon trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on August 26th, 2009 12:43 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Aug. 25th



Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning's economic news showed a higher level of consumer confidence than was expected. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow is currently up 70 points the Nasdaq up14 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, but we will see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

The Conference Board said late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index for August stood at 54.1. This exceeded forecasts of a 46.6 reading, meaning that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising confidence usually means that consumers are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, weaker levels of spending makes bonds more attractive to investors.

The Commerce Department will post July's Durable Goods Orders tomorrow morning, giving us an important measure of manufacturing sector strength. This data tracks orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much weaker reading than the expected 3.2% rise that is expected would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This would be good news for bonds and should lead to lower mortgage rates.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow morning is July's New Home Sales data. This report is the least important release of the week. It will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but only tracks approximately 15% of all home sales. It usually doesn't have a major impact on bond prices or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

Also worth noting is tomorrow's 5-year Treasury Note auction. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET tomorrow. If it was met with a good demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on August 26th, 2009 10:17 AMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday Aug. 24th



Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are kicking the week off by continuing Friday's rally. The Dow is currently up 73 points while the Nasdaq has gained 13 points. The bond market is down 5/32, which with Friday's afternoon weakness should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point compared to Friday's morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. As expected, the stock markets are having the most influence on bond trading and mortgage rates so far. If the major stock indexes continue to rise, we may see bond prices fall further today, possibly leading to upward revisions in mortgage rates this afternoon.

The Conference Board will post this week's first relevant economic report late tomorrow morning with the release of August's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). This index measures consumer sentiment about their own financial situations, giving us a measurement of willingness to spend. That is important because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline would indicate that consumers might not be making large purchases in the immediate future. That sign of economic weakness should drive bond prices higher, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 48.0, which would be an increase from July's 46.6.

Overall, we will likely see the most activity in rates tomorrow morning, but Wednesday and Thursday are also important. If we manage to get weaker than expected results in the key reports and the two important Treasury auctions go well, we should see mortgage rates close the week lower than today's opening levels. But stronger than expected results in the economic reports and disappointing results in the Treasury sales will most likely lead to rates moving higher this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on August 25th, 2009 9:23 AMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Mar. 4th



Wednesday's bond market has opened well into negative territory following a strong opening in stocks. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 150 points and the Nasdaq up 32 points. The bond market is currently down 28/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

There were no important economic reports scheduled for release this morning. The Fed will release its Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET today. This report details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading tomorrow. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

There are two important reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed a 3.2% increase in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see a sizable downward revision to the initial reading. It is expected to be cut to a 1.6% increase in output, meaning workers were not as productive as previously thought during the quarter. The Unit Labor Costs reading is expected to be revised higher to 3.4%. Employee productivity and costs are watched fairy closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns, while increases in employee costs do raise inflation fears.

January's Factory Orders will be posted late tomorrow morning, which will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in new orders of approximately 2.1%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage rates.

We also will get weekly unemployment numbers from the Labor Department, but I am not expecting them to heavily influence bond trading or mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on March 4th, 2009 1:31 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Feb. 20th



Friday's bond market has opened up sharply following early stock losses and renewed fears about the economy. The stock markets are showing early sizable losses after international markets posted large declines during overnight trading. The Dow is currently down 120 points while the Nasdaq has lost 13 points. The bond market is currently up 31/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) this morning, saying that the overall index rose 0.3% as expected. The core data rose 0.2%, exceeding analysts' forecasts of a 0.1% increase. This means that consumer prices rose more than expected if excluding volatile food and energy prices. That is considered bad news for bonds, but the stock and economic concerns has prevented a negative reaction to this morning's news.

The concerns, both here and overseas, about the global economy are contributing greatly to this morning's bond gains. We are seeing a shift to safety as investors sell stocks and move funds into bonds. While this is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, this is sometimes only a temporary move and could lead to further volatility in trading in the coming days and weeks. If investors become more comfortable with stocks, we could see those same funds move from bonds back into stocks, driving bonds prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Still, no reason to panic. This just means we need to watch the markets closely.

Next week is fairly active in terms of economic releases and relevant events. There is no important news scheduled for release Monday, but we do get important data and the semi-annual monetary policy testimony from the Fed Chairman to Congress on Tuesday. The rest of the week is scattered with relevant data releases, so look to Sunday's weekly preview for details.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on February 20th, 2009 1:00 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Feb. 17th



Tuesday's bond market has opened up sharply as economic concerns and strong stock weakness has brought bonds into favor this morning. The Dow is currently down 243 points while the Nasdaq has lost 43 points. The bond market is currently up 58/32, but we will likely see an improvement of .250 - .375 in this morning's mortgage rates.

There are no relevant economic reports scheduled for release today. There are five economic reports worth watching this week that are likely to affect mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Tomorrow brings us three of those releases, including the week's least important. January's Housing Starts will be posted early tomorrow morning, giving us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It usually does not affect rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in starts of new housing.

January's Industrial Production data will be released mid-morning tomorrow. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories. Mines and utilities and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Analysts are expecting to see 1.4% decline in production from December to January. A larger than expected decline in output would be good news and should push bond prices higher, lowering mortgage rates tomorrow.

The minutes from last FOMC meeting will be released tomorrow afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. However, with little likelihood of the Fed making a change to key short-term rates anytime soon, these minutes will likely not heavily influence trading or lead to a change in mortgage rates during afternoon trading.

Overall, the most important day of the week will likely be Friday with the CPI being released, but tomorrow and Thursday may also be active days for mortgage rates. There is a strong likelihood of seeing an active week for mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on February 17th, 2009 10:42 AMPost a Comment (0)

February 11th, 2009 1:07 PM
Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Feb. 11th



Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again as traders continue to digest yesterday's activities on the economic stimulus and Fed bailout packages. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday's sell off but have only been able to recover part this losses so far. The Dow is currently 55 points and the Nasdaq is up 8 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today's only economic news was December's Goods and Services Trade Balance that showed a trade deficit of $39.9 billion in December. This was a larger than expected deficit with latest forecasts calling for it to stand at $35.7 billion. But it was still the lowest trade deficit since February 2003. Unfortunately, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second stage of this week's quarterly refunding or sales of government debt is today with 10-year Treasury Notes being sold. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with strong demand, easing recent fears about the amount of debt being sold to fund the economic stimulus and Fed bailout programs, we should see bond prices move higher during afternoon trading. This may lead to a downward revision in mortgage rates. However, if the sale was met with a poor demand, we could see selling in bonds this afternoon that will lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of January's Retail Sales data. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched quite closely. If tomorrow's report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. However, a stronger reading than current forecast of a decline in sales of 0.3% may drive mortgage rates higher tomrorow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on February 11th, 2009 1:07 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Feb. 10th



Tuesday's bond market has opened well into positive territory as last night's speech by President Obama and his bank bailout plan are being received favorably. The stock markets are not reacting as well to the news with the Dow down 295 points and the Nasdaq down 49 points. The bond market is currently up 28/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee at 1:00 PM ET today. He is expected to testify and update the panel on the Fed's liquidity injections and future plans. His words could create movement in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon trading. After this morning's warm reception to the President's plan, I don't think that it is likely that we will have a negative reaction to Chairman Bernanke's testimony.



However, this week begins the quarterly refunding or sales of government debt that has had traders so concerned about recently. We will likely see more volatility as the week goes on, and as the sales take place. A total of $67 billion in new debt is being sold this week, which had raised concern about demand for current debt already in the market. That is what has pressured bonds recently and helped drive mortgage rates higher. If the market can get by that stigma or concern, we could see mortgage rates rally in the coming weeks.



There was no relevant data scheduled for release this morning. Tomorrow brings us the first of this week's three releases when the least important of them, December's Goods and Services Trade Balance, will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on February 10th, 2009 12:36 PMPost a Comment (0)

February 3rd, 2009 10:27 AM
Rate Lock Advisory - Monday Feb. 2nd




Monday's bond market has opened up slightly following the release of mixed economic data. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 59 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points during early trading. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There were two pieces of relevant economic data posted this morning. The first was December's Personal Income and Outlays report that revealed a 0.2% decline in income and a 1.0% drop in spending.

Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% decline in income and a 0.9% drop in spending. In other words, income didn't drop as much as expected, but spending was slower than forecasted. These readings, along with downward revisions to November's results have prevented this report form influencing this morning's mortgage pricing.

The Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index was today's other release. It showed a reading of 35.6, up from December's revised 32.9 reading. This indicates that surveyed manufacturers were more optimistic about business conditions the last two months than many had thought. This is considered negative news for bonds because rising levels of sentiment could mean that the manufacturing sector may have reached bottom. However, this was the 12th consecutive month of a reading below 50 that means more surveyed business executives felt business worsened than those who felt it had improved, which is a recession sign.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release tomorrow. There is a report Wednesday that has the potential to influence the markets and mortgage rates but quite often is a non-factor. The ISM will release their services sector index late Wednesday morning. It is similar to today's manufacturing index but tracks the service sector. If it shows a significant surprise, it may affect bond trading enough to slightly change mortgage rates. However, more times than not its results do not affect rates.

Overall, look for a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates. Friday will likely be the most important day of the week due to the influence the Employment report has on the markets. But, as we have seen lately we don't necessarily need economic news for mortgage rates to move significantly. Therefore, it would be a good idea to maintain contact with your mortgage professional the next few days.


©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on February 3rd, 2009 10:27 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Time
Mortgage Market News for the week ending January 30, 2009

 

Rates Rise After Fed Meeting

Mortgage rates held steady during the first half of the week, until Wednesday's Fed meeting. As expected, the target for the Fed Funds rate remained unchanged, close to a level of zero. Heading into the announcement, the biggest question for investors was whether the Fed would begin to purchase Treasury securities in addition to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to help support the financial system. Hoping for a decisive plan, many investors were disappointed that the Fed merely indicated that it was ready to purchase Treasuries if "evolving circumstances" justify the action. Yields on Treasury securities rose significantly after the announcement, and in order to compete for investors, mortgage rates moved higher as well.

Also applying upward pressure on mortgage rates, a large fiscal stimulus plan moved closer to passage during the week. An $819 billion fiscal stimulus package passed a vote in the House, and the Senate is expected to consider its $900 billion version next week. The combined government spending for this new package, along with the TARP program, the MBS purchase program, and a proposed bank cleanup plan, will total trillions of dollars. An enormous amount of new debt will be issued to pay for all the government programs, and interest rates offered on all bonds may need to increase to attract investors. One positive note is that foreign investors continued to show strong demand for US bonds during the week.

In the housing sector, December Existing Home Sales rose 7% from November. Inventories of unsold homes dropped to a 9.3 month supply from 11.2 months in November. According to the National Association of Realtors, lower prices persuaded many buyers to step in. Existing Home Sales cover more than 85% of total home sales, so this report was very welcome news for the housing market. December New Home Sales didn't perform as well, dropping 15% from November

 

Week Ahead

The important Employment report will come out on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a loss of 500K jobs in January. Before the Employment Data, a wide range of other economic data will be released, beginning with Constuction Spending and Personal Income on Monday. The ISM national manufacuring index will also come out that day. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, is on the schedule for Tuesday. ISM Services will be released on Wednesday. Productivity and Factory Orders are on tap for Thursday.

Posted by Scott Batt on January 30th, 2009 11:53 AMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Jan. 29th



Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory, continuing yesterday afternoon's selling. The stock markets are also showing losses as they give back a good portion of yesterday's gains. The Dow is currently down 154 points while the Nasdaq has lost 36 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will push this morning's mortgage rates approximately .125 - .250 higher than yesterday's revised rates. This should equate to approximately .500 of a discount point higher than yesterday's morning rates.

This morning's economic data actually gave us favorable results. The Commerce Department said that new orders for big-ticket items, or Durable Goods, fell 2.6% last month. This was a larger than expected decline, but making the news even better was a significant reduction to November's orders that was revised from down 1.0 to down 3.7%. This means that orders for products that are expected to last or more years were lower than expected. This is considered good news for bonds because it indicates a still weakening manufacturing sector.

December's New Home Sales report was also posted this morning, revealing a sharp decline in sales of newly constructed homes. The 14.7% drop in December's sales were the weakest level of sales since records started being kept on them in 1963. This indicates a still softening housing sector that is generally good news for bonds.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is one of the most important reports that we see regularly. The initial reading of the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted early tomorrow morning. This data is so important because it is considered to be the best measure of economic growth. The GDP itself is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. Its' results usually have a major impact on the financial markets and can cause significant changes in mortgage rates. There are three readings to each quarter's activity, each released approximately one month apart. The first, which usually carries the most volatility, is expected to be a decrease of 5.4%. A weaker reading would be great news for the bond market, but the 5.4% decline would be the biggest quarterly drop in 26 years.

The 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) is also scheduled for release early tomorrow morning. It measures employer costs for employee wages and benefits, giving us an indication of the threat of wage inflation. It usually has more of an effect on the bond market than the stock markets. Current forecasts are showing an increase of 0.7%. A lower than expected reading would be favorable to bonds and mortgage rates, but the GDP reading will be the biggest influence on trading and rates tomorrow morning.

The last report of the week is the revised reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer confidence, which is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. I don't see this data having much of an impact on the markets or mortgage rates due to the importance of the employment index and GDP figures. It is expected to show no change from the preliminary reading of 61.9.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 29th, 2009 12:26 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Jan. 27th



Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning's economic news failed to give any significant surprises. The stock markets are showing gains during early trading with the Dow up 53 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which will likely keep this morning's rates near yesterday's levels.

January's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted late this morning, revealing a reading of 37.7. This was a lower than forecasts of a 39.0 reading, but offsetting that favorable news was an upward revision of 0.6% to December's confidence reading. This means that consumers were more confident in their own financial situations than previously thought in December, but that sentiment has dropped in January. Lower levels of confidence are considered good news for bonds because it usually means consumers are less apt to make large purchases in the immediate future.

There is no factual economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but we will get the results of this year's first FOMC meeting. It will begin tomorrow and adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rate, but as is often the case, traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move. However, I am not expecting this meeting to have a major impact on the markets or mortgage rates because the Fed can't lower key rates much more. There is little chance of indicating a possible rate hike in the near future, so I don't believe that this meeting will have the influence they usually do.

The rest of the week is pretty busy with five relevant reports scheduled to be released over Thursday and Friday. There are two on Thursday's agenda while the most important one comes Friday along with two other moderately important reports. I am expecting to see additional movement in mortgage rates over the next couple of days, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 27th, 2009 2:39 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday Jan. 26th



Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and early stock gains. The Dow and Nasdaq are kicking the week off in positive ground with the Dow up 65 points and the Nasdaq up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning's rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to strength late Friday.

There were two reports posted this morning that are somewhat relevant to mortgage pricing. The first was December's Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors. It showed an unexpected increase of 6.5% in the number of home resales last month, but it also indicated that home prices continue to fall. These are mixed results for the bond market, but since the data is not considered to be of high importance, its impact on this morning's mortgage rates has been minimal.

December's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was also posted this morning, revealing an increase of 0.3% in the index. This means that the indicators are pointing towards an increase in economic activity over the next three to six months. This is considered bad news for bonds because it was expected to show that economic activity would continue to fall.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of January's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). It is considered to be of high-importance to the bond market and therefore can move mortgage rates. It is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which is important because a decline would be construed as a sign that consumers may be less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, market participants are very attentive to related data. A reading smaller than the expected 39.0 would be ideal for the bond market and mortgage rates.

There is no factual economic data scheduled for release Wednesday, but we will get the results of this year's first FOMC meeting. It will begin tomorrow and adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rate, but as is often the case, traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move. However, I am not expecting this meeting to have a major impact on the markets or mortgage rates because the Fed can't lower key rates much more. There is little chance of indicating a possible rate hike in the near future, so I don't believe that this meeting will have the influence they usually do.

Overall, look for tomorrow or Friday to be the biggest days for mortgage rates. Friday's GDP is the single most important piece of data this week, but we may see quite a bit of movement in rates tomorrow also. If we see weaker than expected results from the most important reports, we should see rates close the week much lower than last Friday's closing levels. If the data shows stronger than expected results, we may see mortgage rates move higher again this week. This is of course, assuming that the Fed meeting doesn't reveal any surprises. I strongly recommend that fairly constant contact is maintained with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 26th, 2009 9:07 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Time
Mortgage Market News for the week ending January 23, 2009

 

Supply Concerns Move Market

A new President took office, a large fiscal stimulus package moved closer to passage, and investors became more concerned about the impact of the enormous amount of debt which will be issued to pay for all the government programs. The most recent proposal called for an additional $825 billion to stimulate the economy. As the government raises money by selling Treasury bonds, interest rates offered on all long-term bonds increase to compete for investors. In anticipation of this added supply of Treasury bonds, mortgage rates rose a little during the week.

 

  

Week Ahead

The highlight next week will be Wednesday's Fed meeting. With the fed funds rate close to zero, rate cuts may no longer be an option. The Fed has many other tools at its disposal, though, and the accompanying statement will be highly anticipated.

A wide range of economic data will come out next week as well. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter will be released on Friday. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. Durable Orders, another important indicator of economic activity, is scheduled for Thursday. The Chicago PMI national manufacturing index will come out on Friday. Housing market activity will be revealed in the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales reports. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment will round out a busy week.

The details of the new administration's fiscal stimulus plan are still being debated, but the need for one is generally agreed. Former Labor Secretary Reich estimated that the US will lose another 3 million jobs during 2009 if the government does not pass an economic stimulus plan soon. According to Fed Chief Bernanke, a large fiscal stimulus package would provide a "significant boost" to the economy. Expectations for the added supply of debt may have moved mortgage rates a little higher, but the benefits of a stimulus plan for the housing market could be significant. Big picture, more jobs means more potential home buyers. In addition, specific measures are targeted directly at the housing market, including proposals to help prevent foreclosures and to improve the terms of a first time homebuyer tax credit. The new administration has stated that swift passage of the stimulus plan is one of its top priorities.

In the housing sector, December Housing Starts fell to a record low. Building Permits, a leading indicator, showed similar results. The slowdown in the building of new homes will help reduce the inventory of unsold homes on the market.

To learn more about news impacting interest rates and mortgage markets, go to www.mbsquoteline.com
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Posted by Scott Batt on January 23rd, 2009 1:02 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Jan. 23rd



Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory yet again even with the stock markets mixed. The Dow is currently down 109 points while the Nasdaq is currently up 3 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. If the stock markets remain near current levels, we should see bond prices and mortgage rates likely follow suit. However, a rebound in stocks could lead to higher mortgage rates this afternoon.

Next week brings us the release of several relevant reports for the markets to digest. There are two scheduled to be posted Monday, but neither are considered to be highly important. We will get December's Existing Home Sales and Leading Economic Indicators late Monday morning.

The rest of the week has several important reports scheduled for release in addition to the first FOMC meeting of the year. I am expecting to see a very active week in the markets and mortgage pricing. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 23rd, 2009 12:52 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Jan. 22nd



Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory yet again despite significant stock weakness. The Dow is currently down 220 points while the Nasdaq has lost 45 points and it appears that those losses may widen as the day progresses. The bond market is currently down 19/32 as supply concerns continue to weigh on trading. This will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There were two pieces of economic data released this morning and both gave us much weaker than expected results. Unfortunately, it appears bond traders are ignoring the data since they are not usually considered to be of high importance. This is despite wide variances between forecasts and actual readings.

The first was December's Housing Starts that showed a decline in new home starts that was quadruple the drop that was expected. This gives further credence to the theory that the housing sector has not bottomed out yet.

The second piece of data was weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 589,000 new claims for benefits were field last week, greatly exceeding the 543,000 claims that were forecasted. This points to a still softening labor market and does not give hope of a economic recovery anytime soon without stimulus assistance.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, so I would not be surprised to see more weakness in bonds and pressure in mortgage rates. It is becoming clear that the market is quite concerned about the amount of debt that the government will need to sell to meet goals that the new administration is expecting.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 22nd, 2009 1:02 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Jan. 21st



Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors continue to fret about upcoming debt sales. The stock markets are rebounding somewhat from yesterday's sell-off with the Dow up 77 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by another .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow brings us the release of both of this week's only reports. Neither are considered to be of high importance to the markets, but they are the week's only factual releases. Therefore, they may influence trading enough to slightly affect mortgage pricing.

The first is December's Housing Starts report early tomorrow morning. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes from November's level.

The second is weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 548,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This would be an increase from the previous week, which would be considered favorable for bonds. If the report shows a much smaller number of claims, we may see bond prices fall and mortgage rates move higher again. However, a larger than expected number may lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 21st, 2009 1:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Jan. 20th



Tuesday's bond market has opened well into negative territory despite early stock losses. The stock markets have also shown a weak opening with the Dow down 130 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently down 29/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point over Friday's rates. The financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of the Martin Luther King holiday.

Today's weakness in bonds is a result of renewed concern about the supply of government debt that will need to be sold to cover the economic stimulus that President Obama has hinted at. The significant new debt that will be sold makes the current outstanding bonds less attractive to investors, leading to lower bond prices and higher mortgage rates this morning.

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This will likely leave the stock markets to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week. Whether this is good or bad news for bonds depends if stocks rally or fall. If stocks move higher, bonds will likely suffer, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if stocks show weakness, funds may shift into bonds, driving mortgage rates lower.

Today is Inauguration Day and while I don't believe the ceremony or President Obama's speech will directly affect the markets or mortgage rates, it does bring in the new administration, new policies and new theories. Those changes could come into play in the coming weeks and likely influence mortgage rates. Issues such economic stimulus and recovery along with tax and deficit news could create significant volatility in the markets and therefore mortgage pricing.

The week's only relevant monthly economic data is December's Housing Starts report early Thursday morning, but I don't see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 21st, 2009 10:03 AMPost a Comment (0)

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Jan. 14th



Wednesday's bond market has opened strong following the release of weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets have reacted negatively to the news with the Dow down 266 points and the Nasdaq down 52 points. The bond market is currently up 21/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

December's Retail Sales results were the big news of the day. The Commerce Department reported that sales at retail level establishments fell 2.7% last month. This was more than twice the drop of 1.2% that was expected and the sixth consecutive monthly decline. This is the first time we have seen that long of a slump in approximately 40 years.

The release also revised November's sales lower than previously thought and gave us much weaker than expected results with volatile auto sales excluded. This indicates that consumer spending is weaker than many had assumed, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. When consumer spending is soft and the overall economy is weakening, bonds become more attractive to investors. This usually leads to higher bond prices and lower mortgage rates.

Later today the Fed will release its Beige Book, detailing economic activity regionally throughout the U.S. The Fed uses this data during their Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings when deciding whether or not to change key short-term interest rates. Accordingly, its results can cause a fair amount of movement in the bond market and mortgage rates if it reveals any surprises. I am not expecting to see any surprises and no reaction in the markets from its contents.

The Labor Department will post the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December early tomorrow morning. This report is an important measure of inflation at the producer level of the economy. Rapidly rising prices raises inflation concerns and leads to mortgage rate increases. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, especially in the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices, the bond market should fair well. Current expectations are calling for a 1.9% drop in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Posted by Scott Batt on January 15th, 2009 9:19 AMPost a Comment (0)
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